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从行业选择角度看成长股研究

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年10月22日 16:19:53
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(有)(色)(。排)(序)(放)(大)(到)(前)(50,伊)(利)(股)(份)(、青)(岛)(海)(尔)(、万)(科)(A、中)(集)(集)(团)(、东)(阿)(阿)(胶)(、贵)(州)(茅)(台)(等)(著)(名)(品)(牌)(进)(入)(视)(野)(,行)(业)(基)(本)(集)(中)(在)(医)(药)(、家)(电)(、食)(品)(饮)(料)(等)(大)(消)(费)(和)(房)(地)(产)(等)(,行)(业)(属)(性)(较)(为)(单)(一)(,显)(得)(有)(些)(寂)(寞)(。  统)(计)(区)(间)(缩)(小)(到)(5年)(、3年)(,发)(现)(均)(进)(入)(前)(20的)(有)(华)(数)(传)(媒)(、华)(夏)(幸)(福)(、乐)(视)(网)(、上)(海)(莱)(士)(、国)(海)(证)(券)(、中)(航)(投)(资)(、蓝)(色)(光)(标)(等)(,主)(要)(集)(中)(在)(传)(媒)(、非)(银)(金)(融)(、房)(地)(产)(、医)(药)(等)(,行)(业)(属)(性)(变)(得)(丰)(富)(,尤)(其)(是)(新)(兴)(行)(业)(传)(媒)(占)(据)(三)(席)(。  从)(10年)(以)(上)(的)(长)(期)(角)(度)(看)(,高)(涨)(幅)(的)(公)(司)(主)(要)(集)(中)(在)(大)(消)(费)(领)(域)(和)(房)(地)(产)(领)(域)(。从)(1999年)(复)(苏)(算)(起)(,房)(地)(产)(已)(经)(经)(历)(了)(长)(达)(15年)(左)(右)(的)(上)(涨)(期)(,作)(为)(原)(有)(经)(济)(模)(式)(的)(增)(长)(引)(擎)(,已)(经)(开)(始)(减)(速)(了)((实)(际)(上)(行)(业)(自)(身)(发)(展)(的)(调)(整)(需)(求)(在)(2008年)(就)(出)(现)(),行)(业)(趋)(势)(下)(行)(是)(个)(大)(概)(率)(事)(件)(,但)(不)(排)(除)(由)(于)(惯)(性)(还)(会)(滑)(行)(一)(段)(时)(间)(。  目)(前)(可)(以)(确)(定)(的)(是)(,在)(房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(领)(域)(再)(产)(生)(长)(期)(高)(涨)(幅)(成)(长)(股)(的)(概)(率)(非)(常)(小)(,因)(为)(资)(本)(市)(场)(是)(非)(常)(残)(酷)(的)(,会)(迅)(速)(抛)(弃)(失)(去)(高)(业)(绩)(增)(长)(支)(撑)(的)(成)(长)(股)(,但)(存)(量)(二)(手)(房)(交)(易)(和)(相)(关)(服)(务)(子)(行)(业)(出)(现)(持)(续)(高)(涨)(幅)(的)(成)(长)(股)(还)(是)(有)(可)(能)(的)(,毕)(竟)(二)(手)(房)(存)(量)(市)(场)(足)(够)(大)(,住)(房)(更)(新)(需)(求)(随)(着)(人)(均)(可)(支)(配)(收)(入)(增)(长)(转)(变)(为)(有)(效)(购)(买)(力)(的)(基)(础)(是)(长)(期)(存)(在)(的)(。  从)(3-5年)(中)(长)(期)(角)(度)(看)(,5年)(高)(涨)(幅)(前)(20大)(公)(司)(中)(新)(兴)(行)(业)(传)(媒)(行)(业)(占)(据)(三)(席)(,是)(否)(意)(味)(着)(未)(来)(5年)(或)(10年)(的)(中)(长)(期)(高)(增)(长)(公)(司)(会)(诞)(生)(在)(传)(媒)(、IT、新)(型)(消)(费)(服)(务)(等)(新)(兴)(行)(业)(中)(?前)(段)(流)(传)(较)(广)(的)(一)(篇)(“美)(国)(成)(长)(股)(研)(究)(启)(示)(”文)(章)(中)(分)(析)(,美)(国)(成)(长)(股)(主)(要)(集)(中)(在)(IT、消)(费)(性)(服)(务)(业)(、医)(疗)(等)(行)(业)(中)(,这)(些)(行)(业)(和)(公)(司)(的)(特)(征)(主)(要)(集)(中)(在)(技)(术)(创)(新)(、拥)(有)(高)(度)(商)(用)(价)(值)(的)(专)(利)(技)(术)(等)(,简)(而)(言)(之)(就)(是)(有)(效)(商)(业)(模)(式)(加)(上)(快)(速)(复)(制)(,在)(此)(投)(资)(逻)(辑)(下)(,寻)(找)(业)(绩)(持)(续)(高)(增)(长)(的)(成)(长)(股)(。在)(投)(资)(逻)(辑)(上)(,A股)(和)(美)(国)(的)(成)(长)(股)(是)(相)(似)(的)(,行)(业)(选)(择)(也)(很)(类)(似)(,长)(期)(高)(增)(长)(的)(公)(司)(主)(要)(集)(中)(在)(医)(药)(、食)(品)(饮)(料)(和)(医)(药)(等)(大)(消)(费)(领)(域)(,唯)(一)(不)(同)(是)(A股)(中)(出)(现)(的)(房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(高)(增)(长)(公)(司)(,这)(当)(然)(是)(与)(我)(们)(特)(殊)(的)(房)(地)(产)(福)(利)(制)(度)(在)(特)(定)(时)(间)(集)(中)(释)(放)(是)(高)(度)(相)(关)(的)(。  以)(上)(从)(长)(期)(和)(中)(长)(期)(角)(度)(,简)(单)(分)(析)(出)(现)(持)(续)(高)(增)(长)(公)(司)(的)(行)(业)(,表)(明)(在)(成)(长)(股)(分)(析)(中)(,行)(业)(选)(择)(非)(常)(重)(要)(,其)(次)(才)(是)(公)(司)(选)(择)(。首)(先)(尽)(可)(能)(准)(确)(地)(判)(断)(行)(业)(中)(长)(期)(趋)(势)(,其)(次)(是)(公)(司)(基)(本)(面)(研)(究)(,加)(上)(后)(续)(持)(续)(跟)(踪)(,通)(过)(业)(绩)(增)(长)(速)(度)(不)(断)(证)(实)(或)(证)(伪)(,这)(就)(是)(寻)(找)(持)(续)(高)(增)(长)(成)(长)(股)(的)(过)(程)(。行)(业)(中)(长)(期)(高)(增)(长)(趋)(势)(创)(造)(高)(增)(长)(的)(牛)(股)(,顺)(势)(而)(为)(,才)(能)(寻)(找)(到)(行)(业)(趋)(势)(和)(公)(司)(基)(本)(面)(共)(振)(的)(高)(成)(长)(牛)(股)(。(作)(者)(系)(华)(安)(基)(金)(投)(资)(研)(究)(部)(助)(理)(总)(监)()(来)(源)(:上)(海)(证)(券)(报)()点)(击)(进)(入)(【股)(友)(会)(】参)(与)(讨)(论)(
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